BAGAIMANA PREDIKSI GEMPA HAICHENG, CHINA 1975 DAN SESUDAHNYA ? | geofisika Alor

By 22 Agu 2018, 12:13:42 WIB

BAGAIMANA PREDIKSI GEMPA HAICHENG, CHINA 1975 DAN SESUDAHNYA ? | geofisika Alor

PREDIKSI GEMPA HAICHENG, CHINA 1975 DAN SESUDAHNYA

Gempa Haicheng, China, terjadi pada 4 Februari 1975. Ini merupakan satu-satunya gempa yang sukses terprediksi.

Kegiatan prediksi tsb sudah dilakukan sejak awal pertengahan Desember 1974 dan Cina sukses mengevakuasi penduduk kota Haicheng beberapa jam sebelum gempa bumi.

Hasilnya, 90% bangunan kota hancur oleh gempa ini, tetapi penduduk kota telah dievakuasi sebelum kejadian. Hampir 90.000 penduduk selamat.

Tapi itu ternyata hanya menjadi kenangan indah, karena meski dilakukan dengan metode yg sama dan didukung dengan teknologi yang lebih canggih, sederet gempa besar merusak dan mematikan terus mendera China dan korban tewas terus berjatuhan hingga sekarang.

Jepang juga mjd negara yang paling getol dlm kajian prediksi gempa tetapi ternyata gempa-gempa besar terus berdatangan tanpa mau memberi tahu tanpa permisi.

Bahkan gempa dahsyat yang memicu tsunami Tohuku 2011 yang menelan korban puluhan ribu orang, menjadi catatan penting bahwa prediksi yg mereka lakukan ternyata meleset.

Amerika serikat tidak kalah hebat dalam riset prediksi gempa. Mega proyek prediksi di sesar besar San Andras untuk mnjawab kapan "the big one" datang ternyata juga tak memberi hasil.

Jalur sesar San Andreas ini terus dimonitor dinamikanya dgn GPS. Alat pengukur regangan strainmeter, tiltmeter dikerahkan dan dipasang di bebarapa lokasi jalur sesar, monitoring gas radon dll semua diterapkan. Tetap tak ada hasil juga. Banyak ahli gempa yang "lempar handuk" dengn riset prediksinya.

Itulah 3 negara jawara riset prediksi gempa dengan menggunakan pengukuran yang paling akurat, precursor gempa dan tingkahlaku binatang.

Konon hanya china yg masih bersemangat meneruskan riset prediksi gempa.

Jepang dan USA kini lebih tertarik mengalokasikan anggaran dana utk mitigasi gempa, penguatan struktur dan masyarakat di kawasan berisiko.

Meski kajian prediksi tetap dilakukan tapi bukan lagi mjd prioritas mereka.

Kini..di dunia, hingga saat ini, tdk ada satupun lembaga resmi dan pakar yang kredibel dan diakui mampu memprediksi gempa.

Sehingga prediksi gempa ternyata hanya baru sekali dapat dilakukan saat gempa Haicheng, China 1975.

Ditempat lain, negara lain, hingga sekarang blm ada satupun pakar yang sukses dalam memprediksi gempa.

Pakar gempa sedunia kini pun sepakat bahwa gempa memang blm dapat diprediksi dengan akurat kapan dimana dan berapa magnitudonya !

Untuk itu, dalam hal informasi gempa, pastikan diperoleh dari sumber - sumber yang kredibel, formal dan resmi. Ada alamat kantornya, ada telp yang dapat dihubungi dan ada nama nama petugas dan ahli yang jelas posisinya. Sehingga dapat dihubungi utk dimintai keterangan dan diskusi.

Saat ini banyak lembaga resmi pemberi info gempa spt BMKG, USGS Amerika Serikat, JMA Jepang, GFZ Jerman, EMSC Mediterania, Geoscope, CEA China, dll.

Saya percaya siapapun orangnya bisa dan mampu membuat info gempa dan prediksi gempa "karangan" dengan modal jari-jarinya, krn manusia memang punya tangan utk mengetik apapun kemudian diunggah di medsos.

Jika ia tdk mau menyebutkan lembaga resmi, alamatnya, nama petugas offisial, nomor kontak lembaga dan ahli yang dapat dihubungi, maka mereka tdk bertanggung jawab karena tidak dapat dimintai penjelasan dan tidak mau berdiskusi sebagai ilmuwan sejati.

Utk itu mhn mereka jangan dipercaya, mereka "bodong" dan pengecut, dia jahat kepada anda. Ibaratnya, mereka hanya berani melempar bom dan lari sembunyi. Sebutan apalagi yang tepat kalau bukan pengecut.

Hidup kita sudah susah maka mhn janganlah lagi menambah susah hidup anda dan kami. Gunakan akal sehat kita.

Smg anda paham maksud kami karena kita punya akal sehat karunia Alloh swt Illahi Rabbi.

Selamat merayakan Idul Adha bersama keluarga. Semoga Alloh karuniakan barokah, rahmah dan perlindungan kpd kita semua Aamiin.

Salam hormat kami dari Jakarta, pengamat gempa selama 26 tahun. Daryono BMKG

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